Nigeria’s public external debt is expected to increase significantly over the next two years, reaching $72.6 billion by 2027, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The projection was contained in the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria released on Tuesday. The report estimates that the country’s public external debt will rise from $51.9 billion in 2025 to $66.5 billion in 2026 before climbing further to $72.6 billion in 2027.
This represents an increase of about $20.7 billion within the period, raising concerns about Nigeria’s growing debt obligations despite recent improvements in economic stability.
The IMF noted that increasing poverty, food insecurity and spending pressures associated with the 2027 general elections could widen the fiscal deficit and force the government to seek additional borrowing.
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The report also projected that Nigeria’s total external debt, including both public and private sector obligations, would grow from $109.3 billion in 2025 to $132 billion by 2027.
According to the Fund, public external debt as a share of exports is expected to rise from 82.9 per cent in 2025 to 104.3 per cent by 2027, while interest payments on public debt could increase from $2 billion to $3 billion within the same period.
The IMF further stated that debt servicing would continue to consume a large portion of government revenue, with more than half of federal earnings expected to go toward interest payments.
The Fund also expressed concerns over the Federal Government’s proposed $5 billion Total Return Swap financing arrangement, warning that such deals often lack transparency and may expose the country to financial risks if economic conditions worsen.
