The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OPEC, and its partner countries may pause oil production increases in the fourth quarter of 2026 while OPEC prepares for a big review of how much each member can produce.
Analysts say OPEC will likely need to check how much oil each member can realistically produce before OPEC sets new production baselines for 2027. These baselines will decide how much crude each country can pump under future quotas.
The review is expected to happen this year, which could make a pause in production increases in the final quarter possible.
The seven core members currently involved in monthly output decisions are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. OPEC+ is expected to meet on October 4.
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At its latest meeting, OPEC kept its October oil production policy unchanged while members work toward agreeing on new quotas before deciding their next move.
The decision comes while the conflict involving Iran continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which limits the ability to influence global oil prices and supply.
Recall that in August OPEC agreed to increase production for September, completing the planned rollback of a 1.65 million barrels-per-day supply cut introduced in 2023.
However, analysts say actual production remains below targets.
Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy said OPEC now has limited control over the oil market because changing production targets does not guarantee that the additional barrels will reach consumers.
The focus, he said, is increasingly shifting toward the important debate over 2027 production levels
