Nigeria’s oil export earnings continue to drop sharply despite government reforms, putting critical infrastructure projects at risk across key sectors.
The World Bank warned in its April 2025 Nigeria Economic Update that lower oil prices will slow economic growth in 2025 and 2026 and limit the government’s ability to fund priority spending.
In February 2026, authorities introduced a policy to centralize oil and gas revenues for better financial control between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the public treasury.
However, the impact of this measure remains unclear.
Public finances face fresh pressure from a difficult global oil market amid Middle East tensions.
Official data shows oil and gas tax revenues fell far below target in the first three quarters of 2025. The sector generated only 6.14 trillion naira against a target of 23.54 trillion naira for petroleum profit tax and gas levies.
Crude oil and gas sales brought in 1.33 trillion naira instead of the expected 3.53 trillion naira. Royalties reached 5.54 trillion naira against a 10.3 trillion naira target, while ancillary revenues stood at 475.9 billion naira compared to 887.65 billion naira projected.
The Federation Budget Office blamed the shortfalls on lower-than-expected crude production, weak international prices, operational disruptions, poor infrastructure, underinvestment, and ongoing crude oil theft.
This decline forms part of a longer trend. In 2023, Nigeria earned $30.85 billion from oil, down 13.7 percent from 2022. The country missed its 2024 revenue target by 24.7 percent, collecting 15.07 trillion naira. Although production rose to 1.49 million barrels per day by December 2024, lower prices and theft losses continued to hurt income.
Heavy reliance on oil revenues increases fiscal risks for Africa’s largest economy as shortfalls mount
