Domestic refiners have expressed confidence that Nigeria’s local refining capacity can meet the country’s fuel needs and exceed last year’s import volumes, provided adequate crude oil is supplied.
The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said its members, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, are capable of supplying all petroleum products required nationwide without reliance on imports. The association made this known while reacting to recent data on fuel consumption and supply.
Figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that petrol imports still dominated Nigeria’s fuel market in 2025, accounting for about 62.47 per cent of total consumption. Total petrol usage was estimated at roughly 18.97 billion litres, with oil marketing companies importing about 11.85 billion litres, while local refineries supplied approximately 7.54 billion litres, representing 37.53 per cent.
This dependence on imported fuel persisted despite the gradual ramp-up of operations at the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery, which has increasingly supplied petrol into the domestic market.
CORAN’s Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, said the regulator’s report only confirmed what refiners had long argued, that Nigeria has sufficient installed refining capacity but lacks a steady crude oil supply to operate optimally.
According to him, local refineries can produce far more than their current output if feedstock constraints are addressed, noting that the Dangote refinery alone now produces about 50 million litres of petrol daily.
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“The issue has never been capacity. The challenge has always been crude availability,” Idoko said, explaining that several modular refineries are operating well below capacity or shutting down intermittently due to insufficient crude supply.
He cited examples of refineries producing as little as 10 per cent of their installed capacity, while others are forced to suspend operations for months. Even larger facilities, he added, have struggled to sustain higher production levels because of feedstock shortages.
Idoko said the situation has discouraged investors, revealing that some refinery projects under construction have slowed as financiers seek guarantees of crude supply before releasing funds.
Despite these challenges, CORAN remains optimistic that locally refined products will overtake imports by 2026. Idoko explained that Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption peaks at about 54 million litres, only slightly above what the Dangote refinery currently produces.
“With adequate crude supply to existing and modular refineries, we can comfortably bridge the gap and surpass imports,” he said, adding that many operators are ready to scale up production once feedstock issues are resolved.
He also called on the government to support refiners through dedicated funding mechanisms, similar to incentives already available in the gas sector. According to him, local banks have been unable to finance greenfield refinery projects, making government-backed funding crucial.
Idoko further urged the NMDPRA to improve how it tracks refinery output, recommending the use of independent surveyors to verify actual production and stock levels rather than relying solely on truck-out data.
He maintained that with intentional policy support, reliable crude supply, and improved data transparency, Nigeria could significantly cut fuel imports and strengthen its domestic refining industry.
