Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé have emerged as the leading candidates to finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d’Or, according to probability estimates attributed to Kalshi.
The figures place the England and Bayern Munich striker, Barcelona’s Spanish winger Yamal and Real Madrid forward Mbappé at 99 per cent each to secure a top-10 finish.
Manchester City midfielder Rodri follows with 94 per cent, while Paris Saint-Germain’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Inter Miami captain Lionel Messi are listed at 93 and 92 per cent, respectively.
Bayern Munich winger Michael Olise has an estimated 86 per cent chance of making the top 10, ahead of defending champion Ousmane Dembélé of PSG at 83 per cent.
Manchester City striker Erling Haaland is listed at 72 per cent, while PSG midfielder Fabián Ruiz has 66 per cent. Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham follows at 38 per cent.
Barcelona defender Pau Cubarsí is listed at 31 per cent, followed by Arsenal midfielder Declan Rice at 17 per cent, PSG midfielder João Neves at 16 per cent, PSG defender Achraf Hakimi at 11 per cent and Chelsea defender Marc Cucurella at 10 per cent.
The estimates represent projected chances rather than confirmed rankings, with the final positions to be determined by the award’s voting process.
The 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony is scheduled for October 26 in London, United Kingdom, where Dembélé’s successor will be announced.
