International crude oil prices surged above $107 per barrel on Thursday, raising fresh concerns that petrol prices in Nigeria could come under renewed upward pressure as global supply disruptions intensify.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, gained more than five per cent in early trading, rising from about $100 per barrel recorded the previous day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, also climbed above the $100 mark.
The latest rally has increased pressure on Nigeria’s domestic petrol market, where pump prices have risen from about N830 per litre before the latest Middle East crisis to N1,310 or more in some locations.
Before the conflict erupted on February 28, Brent crude was trading below $69 per barrel. However, disruptions to global oil supplies since then have triggered a sharp increase in international crude prices, forcing refiners and fuel importers to reassess their pricing.
The latest surge has been largely attributed to declining oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy shipping route through which a significant volume of the world’s crude oil is transported.
According to Oilprice.com, crude volumes passing through the strait, which had recovered to between six million and nine million barrels per day in recent weeks, have fallen sharply, with recent estimates putting daily outflows below two million barrels.
Shipping trackers have also reported a significant decline in tanker movements, with no very large crude carriers recorded as having exited the strait since early September.
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The development has heightened concerns among traders about the possibility of prolonged disruptions to global crude supplies, particularly as attacks on tankers and commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters continue.
Iran has claimed responsibility for attacks on several vessels, while the United States has confirmed the destruction of some Iranian oil tankers.
With neither side indicating an imminent ceasefire, market participants are increasingly preparing for the possibility that the confrontation could continue for weeks or longer.
Analysts said the absence of a clear diplomatic resolution had prompted traders to reassess global supply risks, pushing both physical crude benchmarks and futures prices higher.
The recent recovery in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had previously helped ease concerns about supply disruptions and moderated upward pressure on crude prices. That trend has now been reversed, adding to uncertainty in the international oil market.
For Nigeria, a prolonged period of elevated crude prices could translate into further increases in domestic petrol costs as refiners and importers adjust their prices to reflect higher crude and associated supply costs.
With Brent crude now above $107 per barrel and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, Nigerian motorists and other consumers face the prospect of another increase in petrol prices if international oil prices remain elevated.
