The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) is ramping up efforts to reverse years of stagnancy in crude oil output by pressing its joint venture (JV) partners to expand exploration and investment, aiming to align with OPEC+ quotas and drive long-term growth.
Through this strategic shift, the state-owned firm is deepening collaboration with international and local partners starting from 2025 and extending into 2026.
The focus, which includes enhancing production efficiency, ensuring maximum infrastructure availability, and upholding rigorous maintenance protocols across key assets are meant to curb frequent disruptions.
Nigeria, which is Africa’s leading oil producer, has consistently fallen short of its OPEC+ allocation of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in recent periods.
Official data indicate that from January 2025 to January 2026, cumulative shortfalls reached approximately 18.12 million barrels. Valued at an average Bonny Light price of $72.08 per barrel, this underproduction translated to an estimated $1.31 billion in forgone gross revenue.
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Production exceeded the quota only in select months of 2025—January, June, and July—while deficits persisted in the remaining periods. The largest gap occurred in September 2025, with output dipping to 1.39 million bpd, about 110,000 bpd below target. Average daily crude production for 2025 hovered around 1.5 million bpd, falling 500,000 bpd short of government ambitions.
Despite these challenges, NNPC is charting an ambitious recovery path. Executive Vice President for Upstream, Udy Ntia, announced in late 2025 that the company targets 2 million bpd within the next two years.
Regulatory figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed around 40 active drilling rigs by the end of 2025, signalling increased activity in exploration and development.
However, OPEC data reported lower counts in some months, highlighting ongoing disparities in reporting and operations.
