Nigeria’s recent decline in staple food prices, particularly grains, is attributed to the federal government’s 2024 import window, which allowed for massive inflows of cheap foreign commodities. This temporary measure flooded markets, driving down costs and providing short-term relief to consumers. However, experts warn that this artificial suppression is far from sustainable and risks long-term damage to the agricultural sector.
According to Mr Ofon Udofia, an international trade expert and Executive Secretary Institute of Export Operations and Management, IEOM, the policy has not reflected genuine increases in local output but rather deliberate interventions that undercut domestic producers. Traders in key northern markets, such as Maiduguri, report diminished incentives for stocking grains, with slim prospects for price recovery. This reduced buying activity signals back to farmers, who face the threat of lower returns or outright losses on their harvests.
A retired senior agriculturist and active farmer in the Niger Delta, Mr Adonye Ezekiel, shared personal setbacks, describing substantial financial hits from storing cowpeas that plummeted in value post-purchase. He highlighted how business-oriented stockists now grapple with similar distress, underscoring broader discouragement among producers.
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Compounding the issue, the naira’s depreciation against the CFA franc has reversed traditional trade flows. Traders from neighboring Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Benin now purchase large volumes in northern Nigeria for export homeward, siphoning off local supplies in informal cross-border dealings rarely tracked officially.
Experts are of the opinion that without mechanisms like price monitoring or guaranteed minimum support, the sector remains vulnerable to speculation. Farmers may scale back grain cultivation or pivot to less volatile crops, potentially triggering erratic cycles of gluts followed by sharp scarcities and inflated costs.
Risk-tolerant storage operators might hold supplies longer in hopes of rebounds, but prolonged warehousing raises chances of spoilage and elevated post-harvest losses, ultimately shrinking available food volumes.
In essence, today’s seemingly affordable staples conceal deep vulnerabilities. The import-driven price relief, while politically convenient, erodes the foundation for self-reliant production and could pave the way for future instability if structural reforms fail to prioritize local farmers.
