According to a report from Quartus Economics, Nigeria’s agricultural sector has recorded a slow growth of just 12 per cent in the last five years, rising from N52.8 trillion in 2019 to N59.3 trillion in 2024.
The report, titled ‘Stalled Growth: Inside Nigeria’s Agriculture GDP,’ concludes that the sector has failed to keep pace with the nation’s population growth, a development experts have called a significant indictment on recent economic management.
The report has it that while the headline figure shows growth, the true picture is far less optimistic. Nelson Okwonna, chief executive officer of Octoville Development Company Limited, clarified that the figures are driven by a sharp rise in prices, not an increase in productivity.
He noted that while the sector grew by 12%, food prices jumped by over 50% in the same period, confirming that “output actually declined.” According to him, the growth is “largely price-driven, not quantity-driven,” a trend that he warned guarantees higher food prices in the future.
The report also has it that the lack of productivity is evident across key sub-sectors. Crop production, the dominant industry within agriculture, saw its growth slow from an annual average of 3.75% between 2020 and 2023 to just 2.9% in 2024.
The fishing industry, too, experienced sluggish growth of only 2.4% over five years before declining by 1% in 2024. Similarly, livestock, after a brief period of growth, declined by 2.1% in 2024, representing a loss of N261.5 billion in GDP.
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Speaking on the challenges, Emmanuel Chukwuma, an agro supply chain expert at Domena Commodities Limited, stated that Nigeria’s marginal growth can be traced to “structural, environmental and policy-related challenges,” including climate disruptions, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure.
He also noted that the current government’s shift towards import-dependent policies, such as the 150-day duty-free window for key commodities, could undermine the confidence of local farmers and discourage long-term investment in domestic production.
The experts’ findings point to a pressing need for the government to re-evaluate its policy direction. Chukwuma recommended substantial investments in key areas like mechanisation, ranching, cold storage, and irrigation to truly unlock the sector’s potential.
This call for a deliberate policy strategy follows the discontinuation of previous large-scale agricultural programs, such as the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, which the Central Bank of Nigeria formally ended in 2023.
