The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has projected a longer-than-normal rainy season in Rivers and other 12 states across Nigeria in 2026, with variations in onset and cessation periods expected nationwide.
Announcing the forecast during the Public Presentation of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) in Abuja, Aviation and Aerospace Development Minister Festus Keyamo said NiMet predicted an early onset of rains in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba states. Conversely, a late start is expected in Borno State.
While rainfall is expected to end earlier than usual in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger states, the rainy season is predicted to extend longer than normal in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna states. Borno, Yobe, and parts of Niger are likely to experience a shorter-than-normal rainy season.
NiMet also forecast above-normal rainfall in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom, and the Federal Capital Territory, while below-normal rainfall is expected in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun states.
The agency warned of severe dry spells exceeding 15 days in parts of Oyo and Ogun between March and May, with moderate dry spells likely in Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta, and parts of Kogi and Kwara states. During the June-July-August season, severe dry spells lasting up to 21 days are anticipated in Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara states.
NiMet also highlighted the expected “Little Dry Season” (LDS) or “August Break,” which is predicted to begin in late July and be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo. The number of days with little or no rainfall during this period could range from 28 to 40 days, while a moderate LDS effect is expected in Ondo, parts of Kwara, and Edo.
Temperatures, both day and night, are forecast to be warmer than the long-term average across most parts of Nigeria in January, February, March, and May. NiMet cautioned that occasional rains in the south should not be taken as the official start of the rainy season. Farmers and others reliant on rainfall are advised to consult NiMet’s predicted onset dates for proper guidance.
