Nigerian businesses continue to wrestle with a crippling combination of security threats and energy deficits, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES). The report, which reflects the economic sentiment of firms nationwide for October 2025, confirmed that insecurity and erratic power supply remain the most formidable obstacles to operational stability and profitability.
The survey findings were officially released by the CBN yesterday, the 13th of November, 2025.
Firms surveyed across the industry, services, and agricultural sectors ranked the top five constraints by severity, highlighting cost-related and operational pressures over political instability. Insecurity topped the list with 71.8 points, closely followed by Insufficient Power Supply at 70.9 points.
The traditional third-place constraint, High/Multiple Taxes, trailed narrowly with 70.2 points, demonstrating a consensus on the major friction points within the Nigerian operating environment. High Interest Rates (68.4 points) and Financial Problems (65.6 points) completed the top five constraints that are currently decimating corporate profit margins.
A crucial observation made by the apex bank was that the concerns of businesses were “more focused on financial factors than political challenges,” indicating that the immediate cost of production and access to capital are more troubling than the general political climate, which ranked lowest among the ten constraints at 57.5 points. This suggests that while political risk remains a factor, the high cost of mitigating operational risks—such as funding private power generation and security—is what truly demands immediate executive attention and policy redirection.
Despite the pervasive challenges, the report unearthed a striking paradox: improved confidence among firms regarding future economic conditions. The Overall Business Confidence Index (BCI) saw a significant jump to 38.5 points in October, up from 31.5 points in September.
This optimism is not expected to fade; the index is projected to rise further to 52.5 points over the next six months, signalling a strong belief in an imminent economic rebound. This confidence is largely being driven by the Industrial sector, which recorded the highest optimism for the macroeconomy at 40.0 points, followed by Agriculture at 38.1 points.
The positive forward-looking sentiment is translating directly into plans for hiring and expansion. All sectors expressed optimism about increasing employment and expanding their operations in November, indicating that firms are betting on a positive turnaround in demand.
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Specifically, Mining and Quarrying recorded the highest expansion outlook at 80.0 points, reflecting renewed interest and potential investment in solid minerals. Meanwhile, the Construction sector led the employment projection with 36.8 points, signalling anticipated infrastructure activity that will require a higher labour force.
Furthermore, average capacity utilisation across all sectors rose to 62.0 per cent in October, a slight increase from 60.4 per cent in September, reflecting modest growth in industrial output and resource utilisation. Regionally, optimism was most pronounced in the North-East (56.1 points), while the South-South posted the lowest confidence level at 23.3 points, a figure the CBN attributed to weaker activity in the oil-producing zone during the survey period (October 6 to 10, 2025).
The survey ultimately presents a dual reality: businesses are operating under immense pressure from high costs and structural defects, yet their faith in the mid-term future remains resilient, indicating an expectation that current economic reforms will successfully drive demand and sales through the first half of 2026.
