According to a recent report, financial analysts are projecting a sustained easing of Nigeria’s inflation in the near term. The positive outlook follows the release of the July 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), which indicated that the nation’s headline inflation rate had slid to 21.88% from 22.22% in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline.
The report has it that the positive trend is being driven by a combination of a more stable naira, the ongoing harvest season, and softer energy prices. According to analysts at Afrinvest, they “expect inflation to maintain a gradual easing trajectory in the near term, supported by continued FX stability, early harvest inflows, and relatively subdued global commodity prices.”
While the experts projected a positive picture, they also expressed concerns about underlying pressures that could limit the pace of disinflation. The report noted that persistent food supply constraints and new policy-driven costs, such as the 4% Free On-Board charge introduced in August, could keep inflationary pressures elevated.
Comercio Partners noted in their macroeconomic update that the new charge may lead to increased inflationary pressures as the higher cost is passed on to consumers.
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The report also noted that analysts from CardinalStone expect inflation to remain on a disinflationary path in August, a trend they said would be “aided by sustained declines in energy prices as the Dangote refinery maintains its distribution strategy.”
The experts’ projections also echoed a sentiment that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria may maintain a cautious monetary policy stance. Meristem analysts stated that “Given persistent month-on-month pressures, we anticipate the MPC will retain a cautious monetary policy stance at its next meeting to keep inflation expectations anchored.”
The report concluded that sustained disinflation would require careful sequencing of reforms and security improvements in agricultural regions to ensure long-term stability.
