The Nigerian petroleum landscape is witnessing a strategic shift as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) intensifies its supply commitment to the 650,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Market sources confirm NNPCL is scheduled to deliver five cargoes of December-loading crude oil to the massive facility, a move that underpins efforts to stabilize domestic energy production and bolster the facility’s ramp-up.
This December allocation, which follows similar five-cargo term deliveries in October and November 2025, includes a diversified mix of Nigerian grades critical for the refinery’s operations. Specifically, the shipments comprise one cargo each of light sweet Amenam and Bonny Light, as well as medium sweet CJ Blend and Forcados. A fifth consignment of light sweet Qua Iboe is set to load in late December but is expected to arrive at the refinery in early January 2026.
The increased flow of Nigerian crude marks a significant reversal in the refinery’s feedstock preference. Tracking data for October 2025 revealed that local Nigerian crude accounted for a larger share of the refinery’s 445,000 bpd processed feedstock, temporarily overtaking previous significant imports of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
This swing in procurement is attributed to changing economics: local barrels become more competitive when transatlantic freight costs are elevated or when European demand for Nigerian crude softens, offsetting WTI’s usual cost advantage, even with the longer voyage required for US imports.
The reinforced domestic supply is timely, as the Dangote Group recently announced ambitious plans to nearly double the refinery’s capacity from 650,000 bpd to an ultimate target of 1.4 million bpd. This planned expansion has, however, brought mixed reactions and underlying concerns regarding the consistent availability of crude feedstock, a fear the company’s president, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, has publicly dismissed.
Despite the government’s implementation of a Naira-for-Crude arrangement designed to secure domestic supply and ease currency pressure, Dangote Industries has consistently voiced that it has yet to receive sufficient volumes of Nigerian crude to run its existing plant at full capacity. This tension highlights the ongoing commercial and logistical hurdles in the country’s upstream sector that challenge the seamless integration of its largest refining asset.
The refinery’s role as an economic catalyst was the central topic of a recent virtual panel discussion on “Dangote, Oil and Power in Nigeria.” Experts unanimously called for robust support for the refinery and other local players in the downstream sector to accelerate Nigeria’s industrialization.
Dr. Mobolaji Aluko, a panelist, underscored the project’s magnitude by pointing out that over the past 65 years, Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna have collectively managed to refine only 144,000 barrels of crude per day.
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He emphasized that the Dangote Refinery, operating at several times that capacity, is a paramount strategic asset that must be protected for the nation’s progress. Echoing this sentiment, Prof. Jibrin Ibrahim described the successful operation of such an industry as an essential pathway to Nigeria’s industrial future.
However, a cautionary note was introduced by labour leader Owei Lakemfa, who insisted on protecting workers’ rights, stating that his sector “would not allow a situation where workers become slaves,” underscoring the need to balance national economic gains with fair labour practices.
The consensus suggests that while the refinery offers immense potential for economic transformation, its success must be governed by supportive, yet fair, regulatory oversight to mitigate fears of a potential monopoly.
