Nigeria’s Super Eagles have received a renewed sense of optimism in their pursuit of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup due to Eritrea’s withdrawal from the CAF qualifiers.
Eritrea exited the competition without playing a match in Group E, resulting in five active teams instead of the usual six.
According to the format approved by CAF, nine group winners will qualify directly for the World Cup, while the four best runners-up from all groups will move on to a playoff to determine Africa’s additional slot in the inter-continental playoffs.
The exit of Eritrea has caused an imbalance, and historical precedents indicate that when groups have unequal numbers, results against the lowest-ranked teams in six-team groups are disregarded when evaluating runners-up.
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This has been observed in previous CAF and UEFA tournaments, where excluding results against bottom-placed teams prevented teams in larger groups from gaining an unfair advantage through additional matches.
Although CAF and FIFA have yet to officially confirm whether this approach will be utilized for the 2026 qualifiers, numerous reports suggest that it is the most probable outcome.
If implemented, it could alter the competition for playoff positions by diminishing the significance of results against weaker teams, which often inflate points and goal differences.
For Nigeria, this development means their qualification path remains viable if they can secure a second-place finish in Group C. With two matches left, they need to achieve maximum points and enhance their position relative to other runners-up once the revised rankings are established.
While automatic qualification is no longer an option unless they lead their group, Eritrea’s withdrawal keeps the race for the best second-place finishers open, allowing the Super Eagles to remain in the running.
