Kelechi Esogwa-Amadi
If the current trajectory in Rivers politics persists, then history might repeat itself in 2023. And the history is that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has been dominating the politics of Rivers State and producing governors since the return of democracy in 1999.
Although that dominance was gifted to the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013 by then governor, Chibuike Amaechi, when he defected to APC from PDP over party crisis then, the PDP, on May 29, 2015, reclaimed control of Rivers politics with the party’s candidate, Nyesom Wike, being sworn in as the state’s governor. But from 2013 till date, the battle for control of Rivers politics has been between PDP, the ruling party, and APC, the major opposition party.
Each election year provides the ground for that battle, as the two parties employ various strategies, wits, and antics to achieve their electoral goals. The battle for the current political dispensation was set again when Nigeria’s electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released the timetable for the 2023 general election. Not long after, political parties, in line with the INEC timetable, started holding their primary elections.
In Rivers State, the PDP did not have a problem conducting its well-organised primaries that produced Sir Siminalayi Fubara as its governorship candidate. But the state’s main opposition party, the APC, did not enjoy such harmony due to the internal crisis rocking the party since 2018.
Although the APC held a primary election that produced Arc. Pastor Tonye Dele Cole as its governorship candidate for the 2023 election, complaints, criticisms, condemnations, allegations, counter allegations, anger, and protest trailed the exercise, with members of one of the party’s two factions claiming that they were disenfranchised. Soon, some of the party’s chieftains began to resign, some defecting to other political parties while a section of the aggrieved members proceeded to court to challenge the conduct of the primaries. But while the APC’s internal wrangling raged on, causing distractions and drawbacks to its governorship candidate, Tonye Cole, the PDP and its governorship candidate, Siminalayi Fubara, were busy fine-tuning their strategies and gaining mileage.
While the PDP and its foot soldiers, the Grassroot Democratic Initiative (GDI), were busy holding PVC sensitization rallies and marketing their governorship candidate, Sim Fubara, across the 23 LGAs of the state, the APC was busy trying to resolve its internal crisis and tackle its legal challenges – which finally culminated in the party’s primary election being annulled by a federal high court sitting in Port Harcourt two weeks ago. Though APC’s gubernatorial flag bearer, Tonye Cole, immediately commenced processes to appeal the judgment, the disappointing development, no doubt, further caused him some setbacks and slowed down the speed of his guber race.
On the contrary, Cole’s main rival in the race, Sim Fubara, is breaking new grounds, making more inroads, and gaining more support, acceptance, and influence across the Rivers LGAs, with support groups and LGA chairmen mobilising to work for his victory in 2023. Penultimate weekend, one such support group, the Ogoni Sim Vanguard, led by Amb. Marvin Yobana and Dr. Sunny Bekawa inaugurated their executive officers in Khana LGA.
The programme climaxed with a chieftaincy title of Mene Lee Gbo I conferred on Sir Siminalayi Fubara by His Royal Highness, Mene Barile Y. Deebom, the Gbenemene Ken-Khana and his council of chiefs and traditional rulers. Fubara’s chieftaincy title of ‘Mene Lee Gbo’ is translated in English as ‘the good friend of Ogoni people.
Analysts see the chieftaincy conferment on Sim Fubara as a confirmation of his acceptance and support by the Ogoni people in particular and the Rivers people in general. They also see it as a sign of his growing popularity among the Rivers electorate at the grassroots. It was more mileage gained in his governorship race.
Again, while the APC and its governorship candidate, Tonye Cole, are busy trying to reverse the annulment of their primaries and disqualification of their candidates by the court, the PDP has taken more giant steps forward by inaugurating its campaign council. This was, a week later, followed up with the inauguration of 200,000 special advisers to the governor on political unit affairs. The inauguration was done by Governor Nyesom Wike at the Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium, Igwuruta, Greater Port Harcourt, on Thursday, November 3 and Friday, November 4, 2022. Analysts believe that the 200,000 SAs will be the eyes of Governor Wike, the PDP and their governorship candidate at the grassroots level as the 2023 elections approach.
If this is true, the initiative then further gives Sim Fubara an edge over his APC counterpart, Tonye Cole. Thus, with the mileage so far gained by Fubara, analysts are convinced that it will take divine intervention for Cole to catch up with him let alone overtake him in their governorship race.
Dr. Chris Ekere, a keen follower of Rivers politics, puts it this way: “The coast is getting clearer for Sim Fubara, and his party, PDP, is also working hard for the election. They’re not saying because they’re the ruling party let them relax. So, like them or hate them, they’re working hard for victory. The governor is not resting, the party executives are not resting, and their governorship candidate is not resting.
“In fact, Sim Fubara has been reaching out to LGAs, visiting support groups, and gradually, the people are beginning to see him as a serious candidate and I won’t be surprised if they decide to support him.
“Tonye Cole would have been his main opponent but the seemingly unending crisis in APC is working against him. Capable people who are supposed to back him up are leaving the party and then the legal challenges. Although I believe they can still resolve their challenges early enough to plan for the campaign but I doubt if they can match PDP’s pace.”
