FIGURE SHOWING EXPECTED POPULATION IN RIVERS STATE
According to the national bureau of statistics (NBS), data obtained showing the consumption of PMS (premium motor spirit) between 2015 and 2016 is being analyzed and used to forecast demand for PMS in 2018 subject to population growth.
After thorough observations and studies on the data given, the meaningful result was produced from it. The observation shows that the population of Rivers state kept increasing at an average rate of 3.20%. In 2015, the population was 6,902,610.95 inhabitants which increased to 7,586692.61 in 2018 at an annual growth rate of 3.20%.
On the same line, the demand for PMS in Rivers state was forecast as well with the given consumption of PMS by rivers state after a thorough analysis of past data. It was observed that, the PMS consumption /demand increases during festive periods.
During festivals period, October, November and December period, the demand and consumption of PMS are at the peak, as well as the May and June period during Easter holidays. During January, February, March, April the consumption drops/decreased gradually towards base demand.
It entails that PMS consumption is primarily used in Rivers state for transportation and generator users. It also shows that Rivers state residents are predominantly Christians who observe holidays traveling to various destinations to meet their families and loved ones as part of the celebration.
With the graphical representation of the demand for PMS, fluctuations of PMS demand during festivals and holiday periods and on the normal periods is clearly observed.
From the predictions, it is observed that increase in population has a direct relationship with demand for PMS, as this will lead to an increase in movement of people which implies an increase in demand for PMS.
Thus, increased in the population of Rivers state and the demand for PMS are directly related. The expected monthly demand for PMS in rivers state for the year 2018 is as follows;
Volume in liters.
| DECEMBER | 64615517.5 |
| NOVEMBER | 59451297.91 |
| OCTOBER | 66400332.85 |
| SEPTEMBER | 47842826.01 |
| AUGUST | 45074774.32 |
| JULY | 44867594.13 |
| JUNE | 55851796.9 |
| MAY | 53040093.07 |
| APRIL | 42956590.68 |
| MARCH | 49766808.91 |
| FEBRUARY | 45577902.3 |
| JANUARY | 59218942.7 |
Rivers state Government and relevant authorities can use the above statistics as a guide to make plans to avoid the menace of product scarcity which has a negative effect on the overall productivity of the state as this will cause down/loss time as such reduced productivity.
ASSUMPTIONS
Price of PMS is fixed at government price N145
Consumers behaviour is constant
GDP per capital for Rivers state is fixed.
Sources: Kegoz oil system limited
