It is eight months before the 2019 general elections, and some public expectations seem not to have been met. One of which is a turbulent Niger Delta.
I have received a few calls and messages in the past two months; from journalists to acquaintances to researchers. These conversations have revolved around the Niger Delta, and Ogoni where I’m from.
One question that always does pop up in slightly different forms during these conversations goes something like “Why is the Niger Delta quiet?” I got one of those calls again today, and as much I want to believe that I tried my best to explain what I think is happening in the region. Making that explanation available publicly would also possibly help others understand, and possibly begin a public or private discourse about what the silence of the Niger Delta region portends.
The last time there was upheaval in the Niger Delta region was between 2015 and 2016, when the Niger Delta Avengers first came to the resource agitation stage with their daring attacks on oil installations. It was just after Goodluck Jonathan (from the Niger Delta) lost his re-election bid to the now incumbent Buhari. They have since fizzled out, as fast as they came, and no individual or group is yet to mount the stage.
Since the months leading up to an election, and a few months after the swearing-in are usually the best time to get concessions of whatever kind from the political class, it is indeed surprising that there have been few, if any, vociferous individuals or groups from the Niger Delta seeking to alter the status quo or change it completely. I believe there is a reason for that.
The agitations in the Niger Delta, by the Niger Delta people, have a history (I’m still studying it), and it has all been about resource control irrespective of what side of the prism you decide to view from.
This can be deduced from historical documents; declarations, bills of rights, and other similar publications that have been made by many of the minority ethnic groups that call the Delta home.
It can be seen in the works of revered sons of the region, from Isaac Adaka Boro to Ken Saro-Wiwa to many others whose names will not fit in here. That the agitations have taken several turns and twists does not by any means mean its core has changed. And that there is a seeming silence from the region does not also mean the reason for its agitations have disappeared. Far from it.
Rivers State has been in the news every other day. Well, not solely because of the many projects being commissioned by the governor, but also because of the soot in the atmosphere that is a public health emergency. The appearance of this soot coincided with when the Niger Delta Avengers disappeared.
Major corridors for illegal Refining are Bakana, Isaka, Ataba, Ogoni Areas. Over 217 active illegal Refining Sites are located along the Bonny Corridor. — Eugene Abels
For a start, Nigeria has just four (4) refineries. In Rivers State alone, there are over 217 along the Bonny Corridor (That is the area that can be crudely called the Ogoni oil well). So here: Niger Delta Avengers disappear, 217 illegal refineries spring out of nowhere, soot fills the Port Harcourt atmosphere, the Federal Government does not have to bother with the bombing of oil installations if they turn a blind eye. Which they have comfortably done.
What money cannot do, more money can do. — Attributed to Godswill Akpabio
It is a trusted and tested method. You settle those that can be settled (militants, politicians and traditional rulers), and well, kill those who refuse to be settled.
Note: Ken Saro-Wiwa was executed by Sani Abacha after he turned down an offer to be Petroleum Minister.
So why is the Niger Delta silent? The Niger Delta is not silent. The Niger Delta is only silent to those who only have on their rader the militants, traditional rulers, and politicians. They are a minority in the Niger Delta. Not visible on the radar are many groups being formed on WhatsApp, meetings being held at night in state capitals without electricity. Phone conversations filled with anger and many similar planned meetings that are bringing about the coalescing of ideas.
I was privileged to consult for a research focused on the Niger Delta region this year. With approximately two thousand persons interviewed in Rivers State and Bayelsa state. One of the questions asked was: Who do you feel have the best interest of the Niger Delta at heart? The options given ranged from traditional rulers to the political class, to militants. At least 75% of respondents chose militants.
To better understand this, majority of those in the 75% bracket were those between the ages of 17 and 30. The other 25% were those between 30 and above. This translates simply to the fact that a vast majority of the very young Niger Delta population believe more in the violent actions of the militants in the resource control struggle. Now the militants are silent because they have also been “settled”.
As the 2019 elections draw closer, the silence will continue from the same quarters. The soot in Port Harcourt will return after the rains. But there is one very important thing here which is that it is only a matter of time before the 75% hoping on the militants realise that their hopes have been betrayed, as the best time to introspect is usually when there is calm, which is right about now. And then, after the calm, comes the storm.
